@August 1, 2025
China to the world
Adam Tooze recently visited the Sinica Podcast. On it, he commented that we should think about the world out from China, not China in response to the world. It’s a somewhat trite comment, but the implications have not been grappled with.
Let’s reframe more clearly: Tooze contends we have passed the point at which the world moves on the US axis; it moves on the China axis.
In many ways, this could be considered a return to the natural axis of the globe: Asia was long home to the richest, largest kingdoms.
Chinese consumption continues to lag, but China is otherwise the leading global economic power in many respects. It produces the most goods, trades with the most other nations in the highest volumes, and increasingly dominates in science and technology.
It’s hard to argue that China has not yet stood up.
America Stands Up (In Response)
A related observation from Stephen Kotkin: China followed the same East Asian export miracle curve, but is the only non-ally to achieve this. All others, like Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, are American allies.
Trump is clearly trying to rewire this. The privilege of the miraculous American market is only for those who work with us, and in many ways, for us.
No one should be able to follow the China model. No one should be able to enrich their nation (even if they were artificially impoverished) on the backs of the magical, powerful, ever more consumption oriented American consumer, unless you do as we say.
There is some deep truth to the Trump concept… even as he imposes the harshest tariffs in decades, the American consumer doesn’t stop buying and the party hasn’t stopped yet! We’re coming off what is an odd, but certainly not bad growth report for Q2 2025.
Our economy is the absolute envy of the world, even as our society maybe isn’t so much.
China and America
I suspect that Trump holds deep respect for the Chinese, mainly because he is an extractive negotiator. He always wants to roll people, so he can respect the team that he thinks has rolled us for 30 years.
This is the moment to watch. It’s obvious, but these next 3-5 years will dictate the US-China relationship more than any time over the last 20.